October through to December, known as the Golden Quarter, is perhaps the most crucial sales period of the year for many retailers and brands. Whether they’re operating in ecommerce, on the high street (or both), Q4 represents the time when everything can be on the line, writes Tom Walkden, IDHL’s media strategy director.
This year, Black Friday falls on 29 November and Cyber Monday on 1 December. The BFCM weekend has become synonymous with getting ahead of the Christmas rush and 2024 is no exception. For many brands, the coming months present unparalleled opportunities to drive revenue yet getting it right – especially in a changing consumer market – requires precision.
So what do marketers and communication experts need to have in mind to have a successful Golden Quarter?
Shifting consumer expectations
Despite its continued presence, Black Friday in the UK has experienced a shift in consumer behaviour. The initial frenzy of bargain hunters queuing for midnight deals has given way to a more calculated approach, with many shoppers holding out for better online deals or waiting until closer to Christmas.
A key factor driving this shift is the economic landscape. In 2023, inflation and the cost of living crisis didn’t deter shoppers entirely but did change how they engaged with the event. According to Mintel, there was a paradox: while the number of transactions during Black Friday decreased, the value of sales increased by 7.3%. Consumers are focusing on high-value purchases, waiting for bigger-ticket items rather than impulse-buying lower-cost goods. It’s a game of cat and mouse as many shoppers hold out for the best price.
This year, I expect we will see more of the same. Retailers will need to focus on communicating value and offering clear, compelling deals to entice increasingly price-conscious consumers; against a backdrop of savvy shoppers looking to take full advantage.
However, they need to balance doing so across the whole of the Golden Quarter period, rather than utilising all strategies and energy in the notorious BFCM chaos. And those who do this well will become the clear winners.
In the current market, why do UK shoppers still care about Black Friday?
Even though shoppers’ behaviour may have changed and the period has been elongated, Black Friday remains a critical part of the retail calendar in the UK. Many consumers still look forward to the event as the best time to grab a discount, particularly in the lead-up to the festive season and ticking big-ticket items off Christmas lists.
Younger generations like millennials and Gen Z are increasingly turning to online and mobile platforms for their Black Friday shopping. These consumers value convenience, with over 55% of 2023 Black Friday spending taking place via mobile. Brands that optimise their digital presence will be well-placed to capture this huge audience.
Additionally, the rise of eco-conscious shopping is also influencing how UK consumers participate in Black Friday. Some are more selective about the brands they choose to engage with, opting for companies that align with their values on sustainability and ethical practices. Retailers that embrace this trend and offer thoughtful, responsible promotions will find that Black Friday remains a strong sales driver.
Why the Golden Quarter is critical
The Golden Quarter has long been the peak trading season for retailers. Christmas shopping and the mad dash for Black Friday bargains have now evolved into a sustained period of consumer activity, blending BFCM with Singles’ Day, Super Saturday, and the extended festive season.
For many businesses, this quarter will account for a significant chunk of their annual sales. In 2023, UK shoppers spent a staggering £24.4 billion online in the two months to end the year.
However, the competition during this period is fierce. Shoppers are savvier than ever, often waiting for the best deals and expecting fast, seamless shopping experiences. Any slow websites or misaligned messaging risks losing valuable sales to competitors.
Those brands that get the whole period right will have a fruitful trading period because it doesn’t depend solely on four days of trading but instead has a strategic and longevity which will reap rewards.
The future of Black Friday in the UK
While there may be questions about whether Black Friday 2024 will retain the same level of excitement in the UK, the event is far from irrelevant. What has changed is how retailers and consumers approach it. With more emphasis on online sales, mobile optimisation and value-driven offers, Black Friday has evolved to suit modern shopping habits among a longer-lead strategy for the whole period.
Retailers need to adjust to meet the expectations of today’s consumer. Whether it’s through personalisation, loyalty programmes or omnichannel experiences, brands can still make Black Friday a standout moment in this critical quarter. The key is understanding the shifts in behaviour and capitalising on them with smart, targeted campaigns.
Tactics to optimise the Golden Quarter
Even though the quarter has begun and BFCM is round the corner, there is always time to maximise success. A few key points that brands can consider at this stage include:
- Test new creative regularly. Take the opportunity during high traffic and intent periods to test creatives, supporting both conversion and reducing ad fatigue. Testing different formats, especially video and images, across all aspects of paid media can help capture attention and help brands to cut through the noise.
- Optimise websites for speed and mobile. UK shoppers are already savvy ecommerce experts, with over half of all online retail transactions now taking place on mobile devices. Websites must be fast, responsive and capable of handling an influx of traffic. This also has a benefit for Google’s Quality Score metrics, supporting efficiencies in Google Ads bidding.
- Leverage email marketing for last-minute promotions. Email marketing is one of the most powerful tools you can use. Even at the last minute, you can craft an impactful campaign to drive traffic and conversions. Think about segmentation, urgency and exclusive offers.
- Use paid media to target high-value customers. When time is short, paid media is an excellent way to target the most valuable customer segments quickly. Social media ads, Google Ads and retargeting campaigns can help reach those most likely to buy. Moving forward in the ‘first party’ audience conversation, creating segmented customer match lists in Google ads will help to create incrementality. I would encourage users to at least have their top 10% customers (by value) applied and used towards bidding.
- Make the most of abandoned carts. Abandoned carts are a reality of online shopping. However, they also present opportunities. A well-timed follow-up email or exclusive offer can encourage shoppers to complete their purchases. Knowing who to target is also vital. YouGov data suggests that baby boomers are far more likely to be abandoners than shoppers, while millennials are strong shoppers – perhaps driven by a greater trust in online purchases. It’s also worth considering retargeting via paid media, encouraging abandoners to return; and this works very well when integrated with an email strategy.
- Plan ahead for higher conversion days. Prioritise spend and bidding strategies to push harder during key periods such as Black Friday itself, Super Saturday and Cyber Monday. In some cases a well-trained Google ads account may benefit from having an uncapped daily budget, ensuring you only do this on automated bidding campaigns. At the very least ensure no campaigns are ‘limited by budget’.
